Did you know Obama was in Europe?

EJ Dionne:

The conventional wisdom on certain subjects is so deeply rooted that no amount of evidence disturbs its hold. That's how it is with those dreary predictions that young Americans just won't vote.

If and when they do, of course, they rewrite history.

David Brooks: Eh, I'm not impressed about that Obama speech. Where were the unicorns? Compared to Shakespeare, this was merely Faulkner.

Eugene Robinson: Obama's not lucky, he's good. But don't tell Brooks.

Charles Krauthammer: Obama will probably win. That snake in the grass Maliki just threw the election Obama's way. And he doesn't even wear an American flag lapel pin.

Ilan Goldenberg: If McCain wants to pretend to be a counterinsurgency expert, he'd better start listening to Maliki. That's Counterinsurgency 101.

Joe Scarborough (MSNBC, vlog): McCain wins the image contrast by campaigning at Sausage Haus. No kidding, I really said that.

Kathleen Parker: It's all about pride and arrogance. And presumption. How dare he not buy into right wing frames and admit The Surge Is Working®? He must be a left wing commie pinko that hates America. Just like Chuck Hagel and Jack Reed.

What does it mean to be arrogant?

ar·ro·gant  (r-gnt) adj.

1. Having or displaying a sense of overbearing self-worth or self-importance.

2. Marked by or arising from a feeling or assumption of one's superiority toward others: an arrogant contempt for the weak.

How about presumptuous?

presumptuous  (pr-zmpch-s) adj.

Going beyond what is right or proper; excessively forward.

Do we think we can be a little more accurate when we throw the terms around? I ask after hearing the talking heads on cable TV blather about while everything about the Obama trip was successful, it 'borders' on being arrogant and presumptuous to be doing as well as he is doing abroad. Not that these were ever terms used by these folks for an event that really deserved the terms. Had they been free with the terms when George Bush landed on the aircraft carrier, or when John McCain said in 2003, referring to Iraq, "Overall, I Believe Our Goals Have Been Met", they might have a point. But they didn't say that about Bush and McCain then and they won't say it about them now. It's not the narrative they are trying to set. They want to reserve the terms for the new guy, Obama, who hasn't paid his dues with them (at least in their own minds).

These same folks are still rather annoyed that Obama doesn't seem to be a supplicant to the talking heads and pundits for their blessing and approval for him to look like a President. He seems to be doing it without them, and not all of them like it.

Some are willing to give Obama a passing grade. David Broder is willing to argue that Obama took no risks with this trip, but nonetheless, the lad did okay. You may recall this famous quote about Bill Clinton:

"He came in here and he trashed the place," says Washington Post columnist David Broder, "and it's not his place."

to get a sense of how important it is to the gatekeepers to establish exactly whose place Washington is, and who belongs and who does not.

Still, the media coverage for the most part has been very good and very positive, and with those visuals, how could it not be? And even those who bring up the arrogant and presumptuous descriptions allow that Obama looked Presidential, and held his own with the generals and the statesman. Everyone who brings it up is careful to say 'almost' or that 'there's no line that's been crossed'. It's just part of the narrative that's developing, in parallel with Obama holding his own with the generals, or his thinking and expressing that he might be dealing with these world leaders for some years to come.

The fun thing is watching someone who is composed, sure-footed and, yes, intelligent, represent America abroad. How great is it that we have a potential President that can put two sentences together without sounding like an inarticulate drunk?

Our friends from overseas are honest enough to say so. This is from the Times (UK):

And there is much more to him. He can sound high-minded yet rooted, idealistic yet grounded, exhilarated yet calm, warmly American and yet a bit of a European too. And, yes, presidential — it is there in his confidence and in his willingness to think and talk big with measured inspiration and an attractive humility. He didn’t go so far as to say "Ich bin ein Berliner", like John F. Kennedy all those years ago, but to judge by the excitement with which they greeted him, the Berliners clearly thought that he was that — and more.

Meanwhile, while Obama looks Presidential, McCain looks petulant. He's ignored his own trips to Canada (with speeches) and Central and South America to suggest that Obama shouldn't be giving speeches abroad. This, after bitterly complaining that Obama hadn't gone to Iraq and Afghanistan, and now complaining that he has.

McCain has had a terrible week, and Obama has had a great one. So, the only way to equal it out a little is to call Obama arrogant and presumptuous, especially for refusing to accept The Surge Is Working® frame. But times have changed, and we don't need them to tell us what to think. We can watch and see for ourselves. The funny thing is that, just between you and me, I think the terms fit some of the pundits this week better than they fit Barack Obama. But, of course, it would be presumptuous of me to say so.

^{Bush picture credit: AP/Applewhite
Obama picture credit: Reuters/Tobias Schwarz}

Chris Bowers at OpenLeft wonders, What Is Your Favorite Contradictory McCain Attack?:

1. Seventeen days after taking a trip abroad to Columbia [sic] and Mexico, five weeks after giving a paid campaign speech in Canada, and two months after criticizing Obama for not going to Iraq, the McCain campaign criticizes Obama for taking a trip abroad that includes a stop in Iraq

2. Eleven days after holding a press conference to claim that Obama  is a serial flip-flopper, McCain argues that Obama is the most extremist member of the Senate.

3. Five days after releasing a documentary criticizing Obama for flip-flopping on Iraq, the McCain campaign argues that Obama is too inflexible on Iraq.

Whether it's Roe v. Wade or off-shore drilling or a pathway to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants, McCain has taken opposite sides. Is it flip-floppery? Or is it flim-flammery?

He was anti-Grover Norquist before he was pro-Grover Norquist. He opposed torture before he yielded to White House demands. He was for campaign-finance reform before he was against a reform provision he sponsored two years earlier. He opposed presidential candidates campaigning at Bob Jones University before he favored it. He was anti-ethanol, then for it. He supported flying the Confederate flag on government property before he rejected the practice. He was for talking with Hamas until he was against it. He favored privatizing Social Security before he said he never was in favor of privatizing Social Security. He opposed the Bush tax cuts for the rich until he voted for them, twice.

Just before he steps off the Double-Talk Express, McCain must spin around three times and click his deals to decide which side of his mouth he is going to speak from.

At the risk of exhausting our pixel supply, here's your chance to name your favorite McCain contradiction.

(If you think you remember one, but not quite, you might try out nica24's extensive collection of links: h/t to peraspera.)

The Overnight News Digest is posted.

This evening's Rescue Rangers are vcmvo2, ybruti, a synthetic cubist, sunspark says, HansScholl, dadanation and jlms qkw with Avila as editor.

• captbobalou suggests that religious fundamentalism may not be the most difficult issue to overcome in Afghanistan in The Problem with Poppies (Part II). (sunspark says)
• winterbanyan describes how Obama's visit has stirred memories of kindness and courage of the American pilots during the Berlin airlift in Obama, the "Raisin Bombers" and my German friend. (HansScholl)
• Louise finds echoes of FDR in Obama's Berlin speech in Obama and FDR's 'Four Freedoms'. (sunspark says)
• fake consultant takes a look at the Bush administration's failure to support our troops upon their return from war in On Extraordinary Awards, Or, Wounded Troops, Wounded Again. (sunspark says)
• mspicata pulls back to look at the larger political picture, the right wing's limited arsenal, and John McCain's tomato supply. (a synthetic cubist)
• boofdah, who recently added two little boys to her family, explains why Being a foster parent has made me more, not less, liberal. (ybruti)
• CinDan reminds us that our failure to have universal health care carries a higher price tag than who pays the co-pay in Rejected. (vcmvo2)
• Tuffy illustrates problems with our health care system in I am so damned tired of almost losing family. (ybruti)
• AdmiralNaismith continues his state by state review of Democratic prospects in the upcoming elections in Focus On...WISCONSIN!!! (HansScholl)
• Bcgntn shares her reflections on her father's birthday and Obama's speech in The Audacity to Hope is a Dream From My Father. (jlms qkw)
• CIndyCasella has a somewhat more sympathetic than usual take on the Katie Couric/John McCain interview in Dear Katie. (sunspark says)
• lyubansky examines the socioeconomic differences between the races in the well-researched but cumbersomely titled How Obama can appeal to Black and White voters and why doing so is more difficult than it may seem. (sunspark says)
• While bklynarch outlines why wetlands are vital to slowing climate change in Wetland Destruction - Another AGW Puzzle Piece, Crashing Vor explains how they can act like "Horizontal Levees". (a synthetic cubist)
• FishOutofWater reports on the status of a plan to protect endangered Hawaiian marine life in Endangered Species & Unique Habitats Must be Protected. (vcmvo2)

High Impact Diaries are brought to you by jotter, and Top Comments - Lily vs. The Head are brought to you by emeraldmaiden.

Enjoy and please promote your own favorite diaries from the last 24 hours in the open thread.

Apparently, Brock Olivo did not do well in social studies class. And presumably, he was even worse in history.

Asked to name his favorite of the Founding Fathers, our favorite former football star turned heinously awkward political candidate has a terrific answer:

"Abraham Lincoln".

In his defense, another candidate said "Ronald Reagan", an answer in which I am really trying to see the funny side. Even Brock himself didn't name Reagan as his fave founder (although to be fair, he almost did).

The Repubs actually have two serious candidates, Bob Onder and Blaine Luetkemeyer, and they better be praying with all their might that they don't split the vote and enable one of these two maroons to win the primary.

Race tracker wiki: MO-09

CNN reports that Dr James Dobson, described by some as the most powerful living leader of the Dominionist movement, might be ready to kiss and make up with John McSame. The news came as a bit of a surprise -- to the irrevocably clueless anyway -- as just this year Dobson declared he could not vote for the aging Arizona Senator under any circumstance. Why the dramatic flip-flop? Ed Brayton makes a safe wager:

As I've been telling people for months, there is only one thing they really and truly want and know that they can get if they can keep Obama out of the White House: the Supreme Court. I guarantee you they have already cut a deal with McCain ...

On the wild chance that anyone really needed more or better reasons to vote for Obama, there you go. If McCain wins, odds are the next set of Supreme Court Justices will be chosen by an ultra-conservative American cleric leading a Neo-Reconstructionist movement in which public schools are blasphemous, and over zealous followers pray their hearts out for the violent end of the world every day -- just what every nuclear superpower needs. Forget about reproductive choices, science education, or equal rights. Ignorance and illiteracy breeds true. A decade or two under the purview of neo-clown winger judges groomed by the likes of Robert Bork or Roy Moore, and many of tomorrow's young women could end up in prearranged sexual servitude alternating between serial pregnancies and being locked in a menstrual shed.

The Bush White House is surely twice as ethical this year as last. In July 2007 the WH staff included two "Ethics Advisors", each earning more than $100,000. That was the year in which a parade of top administration officials were telling Congressional hearings that they remembered nothing about their criminal conspiracies.

Since 2007 both Ethics Advisors have left the WH. Previously the two ethicists in 2006 had also moved on. Perhaps the work load is a problem. Sensing that something needed to be done, the WH has now doubled the number of ethicists on staff to four. The top salary has also shot up nearly 20%.

The improvement in the White House's ethical standards is apparent. Fewer and fewer administration officials are feigning memory loss. During the past year the WH favored a much cleaner solution to the problem of oversight by refusing to comply at all with Congressional subpoenas.

Presumably that's why the WH was able to eliminate the Office for Lessons Learned. Bush has learned all the lessons he wishes to learn.

Here's something no one could have predicted...

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Thursday announced joint appointments to a landmark ethics review board that for the first time will allow private citizens to review allegations against members.

Still, four out of six members of the board for the newly created Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE) will be former members of Congress, including former CIA Director Porter Goss (R-Fla.), who will serve as co-chairman.

Well, golly-gee! Wow. The ex-chief spy -- in an era where insane FISA "reforms" have already made people suspicious of political spying -- being put in charge of sorting out the dirt on Members of Congress.

By the way, go read the article. It's a masterwork of news-in-context. Porter Goss, named to co-chair the ethics panel, written up in a DC insider publication, with no mention whatsoever of Dusty Foggo or Duke Cunningham.

Spies, bribes, hookers... ethics panel. Yeah, this is gonna be great.

Accountability, here we come!

Earlier today, after Barack Obama's speech in Berlin, the McCain campaign issued a this petty press release:

While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a citizen of the world, John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving and protecting America, Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about.

Yes, how dare a presidential candidate speak to the world about his ability to govern as president. And as a matter of fact, here's John McCain thoughts on this very subject before his trip to Latin America earlier this month:

Going to Latin America in the midst of a presidential campaign, he said, speaks less to his role as a senator than to what he's hoping to achieve if elected this fall. "It's more my ability to govern as president," he said, "my ability to lead as president, to keep up with these major issues."

Did he forget that he said that, or is John McCain that much of a hypocrite?

Bryon York over at NRO's The Corner whines:

It's a small passage from Obama's Berlin speech, but this formulation, common in some circles, grates on some ears, like mine:

The terrorists of September 11th plotted in Hamburg and trained in Kandahar and Karachi before killing thousands from all over the globe on American soil.

Yes, the victims were from all over the globe — places like Brooklyn, and the Bronx, and Manhattan, and Queens, and Staten Island, and New Jersey — all over.  And most were Americans, weren't they?  Wasn't that the point of the attack?  This isn't to diminish the loss of anyone on September 11, but people come from all over the world to be Americans, and the great majority of people who died that day were Americans.

York points to Factcheck.org, which states that only 21 of the death certificates handed out as a consequence of September 11 were of foreign nationals from eight countries.

There were 327 foreign nationals killed in the September 11 attacks. They were commemorated on the fifth anniversary, with Condoleeza Rice in attendance, as you can read about in this story, Five-Year 9/11 Remembrance Honors Victims from 90 Countries. Some, it is true, were dual citizens. But Britain alone lost 67 of her citizens that day, as you can read about in this story, British victims of 9/11 remembered by royal couple.

York's take on this not only begrudges other countries their loss, but also renders that loss a provincial, American loss. Obama is attempting, years after the fact, to remind the world of the opposite, of the universal horror of that day and the way that people from every corner of the globe - from France to Iran - stood in solidarity with New York and Washington on September 11. And, of course, by implication, how attitudes like York's within the administration squandered that sense of solidarity.  

York is certainly petty in downplaying the deaths of non-Americans in the attacks. But worse, inherent in his screech is the reverse of his xenophobia, a rejection of the notion that we as Americans could ever feel solidarity and a sense of humanist bonding with people of another country. Screw the Enlightenment, we're not cosmopolitan, we've got no broader sense of common humanity. It's us versus the world, and if you don't live here, you don't f'n matter.

Pathetic.

McCain apparently isn't as tech ignorant as we think.  Like most Republicans, he appears to be getting all his news from chain emails, because he's parroting the latest talking point that's been propagating down the pipe that brought previous bits of GOP misdirection.  

Earlier, campaigning in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., McCain credited the recent $10-a-barrel drop in the price of oil to President Bush's lifting of a presidential ban on offshore drilling, an action he has been advocating in his presidential campaign.

See, we didn't even have to drill to lower the price of oil, we only had to talk about it.  Which has to make you wonder why Bush didn't bother to remove the executive ban until after Republicans had decided to make oil the focus of their campaign.  (Oh yeah, and how is it that Democrats kept oil companies from saving us when Bush left the executive ban in effect until now?)

What's the real reason oil prices are falling?

"The worries about demand erosion in the U.S. and an economic slowdown are really pulling prices down," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consulting firm Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore.

The Energy Department's report also showed that U.S. gasoline stockpiles jumped 2.9 million barrels last week, far more than analysts surveyed by energy research firm Platts predicted. The decline in crude inventories was less than forecast.

So congratulations to McCain, Bush, and the Republicans!  They've reduced oil prices by wrecking the economy to the point where demand is falling.  I guess that's one way to satisfy the supply/demand equation.

Don't worry, none of this will make the email.

Just a little reminder from Berlin ....

This is what "proud to be an American" looks like in the 21st Century.

We're in trouble:

Obama was at the Tiergarten in Berlin, amid a sea of people.  McCain was at "Schmidt's Sausage Haus und Restaurant" in German Village, an enclave of Columbus, Ohio.

McCain addressed about a half dozen Ohio small business owners in the historic village.
"I'd love to give a speech in Germany," McCain said. "But I'd much prefer to do it as President."

[...]

This event was hastily organized after the candidate's planned visit to a Louisiana [oil rig] was cancelled due to the threat of hurricanes in the Gulf Coast.

Someone emailed me this news from another source, and at first we couldn't tell if it was satire.  Obama, of course, gave a speech this afternoon to huge crowd in Berlin.  He has just come from the Middle East, where he garnered glowing press.   Seeing the McCain campaign try to counter Obama's Berlin event with a stop in German Village where McCain ate some sausage is so pathetic it probably causes most political observers who aren't fervent Republicans to laugh, and like us, think, "nah, this has to be a joke.  They're not that bad...are they?"

It wasn't a joke.  And it's got me worried.

You probably know the concept of peaking too soon.  I'm afraid the McCain campaign may be bottoming out too soon.  I've been following politics since the mid-80's, and I can't think of any campaign that has been as bad as McCain's.  

The campaign thought it was a good idea to send McCain out to an oil rig during a hurricane.  That didn't work, because, you know, there was a hurricane.  By even suggesting that it was a good idea, and then having to pull back from their plans, they looked like nitwits.  (And that doesn't even address the problems caused by the oil spill that's shut down the Mississippi River south of New Orleans.  

Their Plan B?  They sent him to an ethnic diner that will reinforce the contrast between the tired McCain, who met with a few small businessmen, and the charismatic Obama, who got a reception from Berliners like that given to John F. Kennedy.  

Obama went to Berlin and got hundreds of thousands of people and fawning press coverage.  McCain went to Ohio and got a bratwurst and probably a case of heartburn.    

So why am I worried?  Because I can't believe Republicans will allow McCain to continue running his campaign this poorly.  [And the RNC hasn't been any better, as SusanG pointed out yesterday.]  The rest of the party doesn't necessarily need him to run a campaign that can put him in a position to win, but they have to do whatever they can to prevent him from losing solidly and losing in a landslide.  A solid loss hurts them for a while.  It could take them a decade or longer to recover from a landslide loss.

McCain isn't a particularly good candidate.  He's undisciplined, many people think he's too old to be president, he's too closely associated with George W. Bush, and his party is now loathed by much of America.  He's generally seen as likable, but more and more his weaknesses as a candidate are becoming visible.

But as bad a candidate as McCain may be, his campaign is making him worse.  They wasted the time between him locking up their nomination and Obama securing ours.  Obama raised as much money in one day last month as McCain raised in all of June.  McCain spent far more than Obama in June, but he didn't gain any ground.

The McCain campaign recently went through shake-up that was supposed to tighten their operations.  While they have gotten slightly more aggressive in attacking Obama, their messaging and choice of locations and visuals have been laughably bad and don't appear to be getting any better.

I love seeing McCain's campaign get outclassed by Obama's in almost every facet.  I have thought all along that whoever won our nomination would win the presidency, and that there's a good chance that by historical standards it won't even be close.  But I don't like to see the McCain campaign hit what by similar historical standards may be rock bottom, and do it so far out from the election that McCain might have time to bring in people who could improve his operation and make the election closer than we would all like.  

Colorado

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4.5% (6/17-24 results)

These Q-poll numbers are creating a bit of a panic today, which is a bit overwrought and unwarranted, even if the odd number here and there doesn't look good for us. In the case of Colorado, it's always nice when the numbers show our guy in the lead, but most polling has shown this race within the MoE, and this poll is no different. This is what's known as a "battleground", and as such, is inherently, by definition, tight.

I mean, look at the Pollster.com composite score on this race: Obama 46.2, McCain 45.5. That is tight, and should remain so for a while.

Michigan

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4% (6/17-24 results)

Float within the MoE. These numbers are better than those of local firm EPIC-MRA released yesterday, which gave Obama a narrow 43-41 lead. This poll actually widens the composite a bit, up to 47 Obama, 40 McCain.

Lots of rumors floating around that Romney has the leg up in the GOP veep sweepstakes because of his ability to "deliver" Michigan.

Minnesota

Rasmussen. 7/22. MoE 4.5% (7/10 results)

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 2.8% (6/17-24 results)

Not much change in Rasmussen's numbers, but a huge McCain gain in that Q-poll that has everyone freaking out. Rather than cherry pick the favorable polls and try to explain away the bad ones, use this as a reminder that every state is competitive until the fat lady has sung. You get complacent at your own peril.

But the composite poll of polls still gives Obama a comfortable lead -- Obama 50.2, McCain 37.7. No need to panic, but also no need to slack off.

New Hampshire

Rasmussen. 7/23. MoE 4.5% (6/18 results)

This poll seems to ratify yesterday's ARG poll showing things getting tighter in the Granite State. Both ARG and Ras had given Obama a double-digit lead in their previous polls, and both show it much tighter today.

The composite is at Obama 48, McCain 41.9, but I think it's fair to conclude that this state is likely a bit tighter than that.

Wisconsin

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4.5% (6/17-24 results)

More float within the MoE. Wisconsin remains surprisingly strong for Obama given how tough it's been to hold the last two presidential years. The composite remains safely in double digits -- Obama 50.6, McCain 38.3.

Here is the McCain campaign's response to today's speech by Barack Obama in Berlin, Germany.

While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a citizen of the world, John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving and protecting America, Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about.

Can McCain get any more petty and childish than he has been for the past week?

Field (PDF). 7/8-14. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (5/17-26)

There is no more accurate poll in California than Field, so these are good numbers. The fact that the "no" vote (always an advantage in these initiatives) is already over 50 percent virtually ensures that as long as the "no" camp runs a vigorous campaign, this hateful ballot initiative will be defeated. Fact is, same-sex marriages are taking place up and down the Golden State, and there has been one large collective shrug from the broader public. It's just not as scary as the haters would have us believe. Rather, it's kind of inspiring.

Update: Got the right link up there now.